Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 29.611259 32.960483 36.798124 41.585116 47.491733 54.676736 64.304036
2025-06-08 24.574958 28.708968 33.867350 40.993385 50.975374 65.178561 88.562521
2025-06-15 21.353265 25.797708 31.693305 40.501323 54.215334 76.784099 123.219429
2025-06-22 19.148393 23.728246 30.097821 40.240846 57.560661 90.356844 177.372420
2025-06-29 17.319231 21.854693 28.383884 39.296983 59.367989 102.375339 251.702874
2025-07-06 16.577882 21.380173 28.591159 41.409182 67.469347 134.694953 532.104507
2025-07-13 15.446957 20.181521 27.474188 40.946811 70.220403 156.866527 1074.791933
2025-07-20 14.638732 19.371319 26.848400 41.218347 74.753636 191.687304 4832.295437
2025-07-27 13.965706 18.694589 26.340801 41.589820 79.766489 239.376873 NaN
2025-08-03 13.307709 17.977118 25.668508 41.480517 83.526202 293.199064 NaN
2025-08-10 12.662883 17.226031 24.850796 40.904883 85.749464 348.715787 NaN
2025-08-17 12.186603 16.710658 24.395363 41.033893 90.373183 452.669314 NaN
2025-08-24 11.688792 16.132055 23.781712 40.734238 93.673790 582.039354 NaN
2025-08-31 11.208551 15.551840 23.113115 40.200747 96.016136 746.081476 NaN
2025-09-07 10.780508 15.032956 22.514390 39.741224 98.565861 1000.519245 NaN
2025-09-14 10.413621 14.595740 22.033356 39.496323 102.039890 1489.928404 NaN
2025-09-21 10.005639 14.065294 21.330425 38.584127 102.175028 1967.236362 NaN
2025-09-28 9.930319 14.104218 21.740449 40.634136 118.205019 22860.181385 NaN
2025-10-05 9.617947 13.709214 21.251828 40.186595 121.116559 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.392511 13.456077 21.030459 40.450184 128.632785 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.190040 13.232859 20.852097 40.810439 137.459353 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 8.961576 12.951414 20.531499 40.704553 143.344870 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 8.711009 12.618861 20.081504 40.146501 145.649698 NaN NaN